10 décembre 2009
Barron’s – 11/12/09
THE BULL MARKET IS NINE MONTHS OLD, a financial news Web site trumpeted, as if a birth announcement should be expected momentarily. But, say a couple of seasoned seers, this has been only a baby cyclical bull in a secular bear market that is far from running its course. Psychology currently is reaching bullish extremes while valuations never came close to the nadirs that have been associated with past bear-market bottoms.
Albert Edwards, Societe Generale’s world-class global strategist, points to the scarcity of bears among the newsletter writers tracked by Investors Intelligence, which last week fell to the lowest level since the stock market peaked in 2007.
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10 décembre 2009
Financial Times – 09/12/2009 – Albert Edwards
The equity bear market is not over, warns Albert Edwards, analyst at Société Générale. “The valuation bear market began in 2000 and we have only seen two acts of a far longer and more disturbing play,” he says. The mega-rally in equities this year is little different from what was seen in Japan during the mid-1990s, he adds. “Certainly when I see the current extremely low number of equity bears [the lowest as measured by Investors Intelligence since the market top of 2007], the likelihood is that the next leg of the long-term structural valuation bear market is closer than people realise.”
The key is to know when to sell. “Even a structural bear could have made a lot of money in Japan playing cyclical rallies, but he/she needed to sell as the cycle turned downwards. Hence the topping out of some key US leading indicators may signal the top of the equity rally is close.”
In chart terms, the S&P is stuck close to its 50 per cent retracement level from the October 2007 peak. In addition, key indicators such as the relative strength index have been weakening on poor volume throughout the second-half rally, suggesting a lack of strong technical underpinnings. “Very weak German new orders and production data for October put a dent in the cyclical optimism that has abounded for most of this year. Markets will march to a very different drumbeat next year.”
8 décembre 2009
Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — The dollar’s biggest rally since January signaled losses for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Mary Ann Bartels at Bank of America Corp. The Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners, had the biggest gain in 11 months on Dec. 4 and rose above its average level from the prior 50 days to close last week at 75.911. Bartels, who studies charts to make forecasts, said the gauge may now reach 76.82, a level last reached on Nov. 3. It has lost the most since 1986 in the past nine months. “The U.S. dollar is bottoming,” Bartels, ranked second among technical analysts in Institutional Investor magazine’s 2009 survey, said in an interview yesterday. “It appears to be the most unloved asset class and sentiment is grossly oversold. A stronger dollar should be negative for stocks.” The U.S. currency index has dropped 15 percent from the three-year high reached in March on speculation the Federal Reserve would be slow to raise interest costs. The S&P 500 has surged 63 percent to 1,103.25 from its 12-year low on March 9 on signs the economy is improving. The biggest U.S. stocks have beaten the smallest this quarter as the dollar’s decline sends investors to companies with the most business in international markets. The S&P 100 Index has risen 4.9 percent compared with the 0.1 percent gain by the S&P SmallCap 600 Index. Companies in the measures have median values of $40.3 billion and $586.7 million, respectively. Bartels said that the currency rally could make the S&P 500 decline to 1,084. Should the “bears win,” the benchmark for U.S. stocks could drop to its 50-day moving average, which was 1,079.16 at yesterday’s close, and then sink to 1,000, she said. “There’s this tug of war between the bulls and bears, and the dollar could be key as to which direction the market breaks,” Bartels said. Technical analysts use price charts to forecast resistance levels, or ceilings restricting further price increases, and support levels, or floors limiting declines. A drop below support is a harbinger of losses.
4 décembre 2009
Les Echos – 03/12/09
La Chine doit tirer les leçons de la crise de Dubaï et prendre des mesures concrètes pour empêcher qu’un phénomène similaire affecte le marché immobilier chinois en pleine bulle spéculative. Un effondrement saperait l’économie de la Chine. »Pour « China Daily », la crise, elle-même, de Dubai World et de sa filiale devrait se résorber. Mais la Chine, très largement exposée aux investissements à l’extérieur, doit s’inquiéter des effets négatifs. Bien entendu, la plupart des institutions financières chinoises ont immédiatement affirmé qu’elles n’avaient aucun investissement à Dubaï et ne craignaient donc rien. Mais le problème n’est pas là, affirme le quotidien chinois en langue anglaise. La question est de savoir si cette crise va conduire le gouvernement chinois et les autorités « à s’interroger sur les bulles immobilières et le poids de ce secteur dans la croissance de l’économie nationale ». Faute de procéder à une telle révision, affirme « China Daily », il y a de fortes chances que l’immobilier en Chine s’effondre. Le journal rappelle qu’après le krach financier mondial, Pékin avait pris des mesures de stimulation pour soutenir notamment ce secteur. Ce qui a entraîné une nouvelle bulle spéculative. Le gouvernement chinois a pris néanmoins conscience de cette menace comme le laisse entendre « China Daily » en citant de récentes déclarations du Premier ministre, Wen Jiabao. Maintenant, il faut passer aux actes comme réduire la politique de prêts au logement à taux préférentiel, encadrer plus sévèrement les investissements et la spéculation dans l’immobilier ou faire bénéficier des mesures d’aide aux seuls acheteurs envisageant d’occuper réellement le logement acheté.
3 décembre 2009
Barron’s – 03/12/09 – While rising equity prices are suggesting a rosy outlook for the economy, rising short-term bond prices are suggesting concerns about what lies ahead.
OVER THE PAST DECADE, stock and bond prices have generally moved in opposite directions, meaning that share prices and bond yields have moved together, both higher and lower. Both share prices and yields set major bottoms in mid-2003 and major tops in mid-2007, give or take a few months. And while most major stock indexes bottomed again in March 2009, the bigger stocks on the Nasdaq bottomed in November 2008 — with bond yields. This important relationship held true this year until June, when bond yields peaked. One month later, as yields moved lower, stocks began their current leg up.
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