19 octobre 2010
Market wag David Rosenberg explains why he remains bearish on the economy and bullish on Treasuries.
SINCE LEAVING MERRILL LYNCH two years ago, where he was the chief North American economist, David Rosenberg has lost none of his preeminence in auguring the direction of the U.S. economy. His prognostications of a double-dip in the economy haven’t been born out, at least for now. But so far he’s been more right than many sages in pointing out that the U.S economy isn’t living up to the most bullish expectations. In his daily briefings for Gluskin Sheff & Associates, a Toronto-based investment management firm, Rosenberg waltzes with characteristic aplomb through reams of data on topics ranging from just how bad the unemployment situation is (payrolls fell in September for the first time since December of last year and are still 7.8 million jobs short of the prerecession period) to how weak pricing power is these days (the latest consumer price index reading of zero change for a second month in a row only happens 7% of the time.)
Name: David Rosenberg
Title: Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff & Associates
Education: Master’s in Economics, University of Toronto
Hobbies: Chess, tennis, brick breaker
In a chat with Barrons.com this week, he burst the balloon of both the stock bulls salivating over more Fed stimulus, as well as those overly excited about a Republican mid-term triumph. Rosenberg’s only affection is for the still unloved Treasury bill.
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13 octobre 2010
Les Echos – 11/10/2010
En principe, le prix des logements anciens augmente à peu près comme le revenu des ménages, selon l’économiste Jacques Friggit. Suite à leur envolée, les prix des logements anciens pourraient chuter de 30 à 35% d’ici à 2015 et retrouver ainsi leur corrélation de long terme.
Combien de temps durera l’euphorie qui règne actuellement sur le marché des logements, en particulier dans les secteurs tendus comme l’Ile-de-France ? Selon un récent sondage de la FNAIM, les ménages anticipent la poursuite de la hausse de l’immobilier ancien. A moyen terme, cet avis n’est pas partagé par l’économiste Jacques Friggit, chargé de mission au Conseil général de l’environnement et du développement durable. Il scrute l’évolution depuis 1965 du revenu disponible par ménage sur l’ensemble de la France et l’indice du prix des logements anciens en France. « De 1965 à 2000, l’indice du prix des logements anciens a augmenté approximativement comme le revenu par ménage et a évolué dans un « tunnel » autour de ce dernier. » observe-t-il. Mais, depuis le début des années 2000, on assiste à une envolée du prix des logements anciens rapporté au revenu des ménages. Certes la courbe des prix a reculé d’environ 10% en 2009, mais elle a depuis, repris sa hausse. Résultat : l’indice des prix des logements anciens en France dépasse de 70% le fameux tunnel de Friggit.
12 octobre 2010
Bloomberg – 10/12/2010
Global markets are heading for an “important turning point” as interest rates begin to rise within about three months and the U.S. dollar gains, according to investor Marc Faber. Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble,” Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told reporters during a forum in Seoul today.
“Instead of interest rates going down, they could start to go up, instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” Faber said. “I’m ultra-bearish on everything, but I believe you’ll be better off owning shares than government bonds.” The Dollar Index slid 8.5 percent last quarter, the most since June 2002, and dropped 1.3 percent this month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he may add money to the economy. That new supply is reflected in exchange rates, based on how the currency reacted to the last round of so-called quantitative easing, said HSBC Holdings Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Nordea Bank AB. The central banks of Israel and Taiwan raised borrowing costs in the last 15 days. Faber’s recommendation on stocks is shared by Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Investors buying bonds now “are making a mistake,” he said Oct. 5 at Fortune magazine’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington.
“It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds,” Buffett said. “I can’t imagine anyone having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities.” U.S. stock dividends are paying more than government bonds. Ten-year Treasuries yield 5.2 percentage points less than equities of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index when adjusted for annual inflation, near the most since March 2009. Faber told investors to abandon U.S. stocks a week before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and said in August 2007 that U.S. shares were entering a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked two months later before retreating as much as 57 percent.
7 octobre 2010
Bloomberg – 06 oct. 2010
Meredith Whitney, the bank analyst who jumped to celebrity from obscurity by correctly predicting Citigroup Inc.’s dividend cut, is having less success divining stock market winners and losers.
Since Whitney founded her own firm last year, about two- thirds of her picks have fared worse than market indexes. Missed calls include Visa Inc., the payments network that fell 14 percent after Whitney called it her “single best buy,” and credit-card issuer Capital One Financial Corp., which tripled after she urged clients to sell. Whitney’s recommendation to sell bank stocks propelled her to fame during the financial crisis. Time magazine dubbed her one of the world’s most influential people and Fortune put her on its list of the 50 Most Powerful Women. Michael Lewis’s best- seller “The Big Short” chronicled how Whitney’s prediction on Oct. 31, 2007, that Citigroup would lower its dividend helped erase $390 billion of value from U.S. stocks. “She can move the markets, her opinion is extremely worthwhile, but she does not bat a thousand — nobody does,” said Matt McCormick, a portfolio manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl & Gaynor Inc., referring to a measure of baseball perfection. “The calls that she’s making may not be the best calls right now, but a year from now, who knows?” said McCormick, whose company oversees $2.7 billion.
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