L’ « indice de la peur » au plus bas aux Etats-Unis : le calme avant la tempête ?

Les Echos

Le VIX, souvent appelé « indice de la peur », a récemment atteint un point bas depuis juin 2007. Plusieurs facteurs expliquent cet accès de faiblesse.

Le VIX, souvent appelé « indice de la peur », atteint des niveaux dérisoirement bas (autour de 14 %). Cet indice de volatilité sur l’indice américain S&P 500 a même inscrit récemment un plus bas depuis juin 2007, avant la crise donc.

Faber: S&P to Drop 10%, Sparking QE3 (Maybe QE4)

Real Clear Markets

Marc Faber, the famous author of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, sees the S&P 500 breaking down 150 points, or 10 percent, sparking QE3 and maybe even QE4, from the Fed.

Voir ici

Pour rebondir, les marchés doivent capituler

Les Echos

D’après l’analyse technique, si l’Euro Stoxx passe sous les 2.000 points cet été, les marchés européens peuvent espérer s’offrir un rebond rapide.

Une bonne capitulation serait tout le mal que l’on pourrait souhaiter aux marchés européens. Sans cela, point de rebond, car jusqu’à présent les dirigeants politiques européens n’ont pas pris les bonnes décisions pour enrayer la crise et rassurer les investisseurs. On n’en est pas encore là. L’Euro Stoxx 50 évolue entre 2.000 et 2.500 points depuis un an, un tunnel dont il n’arrive pas à sortir. Et le rebond récent n’y change rien.

Un CAC 40 sous 3.000 points : le scénario des chartistes

Les Echos

Le rebond des marchés, la semaine dernière, ne doit pas faire illusion. Il s’agirait d’une embellie avant une tempête qui promet d’amener les indices de nouveau vers des points bas, selon le bureau de recherche sur les actions européennes et françaises DayByDay.

Sell in may and go away  » (1), dit le vieux proverbe boursier. Les analystes graphiques semblent y croire. Le rebond des marchés, la semaine dernière, ne doit pas faire illusion. Ce serait une embellie avant une tempête qui promet d’amener les indices de nouveau vers des points bas.

The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks ?

Barron’s

A leading fund manager sees conditions in today’s market that presaged past plunges. A "perfect storm" lies ahead, adds a technical guru.

When practitioners who take distinctly different approaches to analyzing financial markets come to similar conclusions, it behooves investors to pay attention, even if those conclusions clash with yours. John P. Hussman, who puts his Ph.D. in economics to work by heading the eponymously named Hussman Funds, thinks that the present ranks among what he calls "A Who’s Who of Awful Times to Invest," along with such unpropitious periods as 1973-74, 1987, 2000-02 and 2007-09.

Walter J. Zimmermann Jr., who heads technical analysis for United-ICAP, a technical advisory firm, puts it more succinctly: "A perfect financial storm is looming."

Going long still seems the way to go

Financial Times

It doesn’t matter how bullish investors are, the market does not usually go up in a straight line for an extended period. The recent grind higher for the S&P 500 may therefore be stretching its luck. By Monday’s close the benchmark is up 100 points, or 8 per cent, since the turn of the year without any pullback worthy of the name.

But this has left the 14-day relative strength index flirting with overbought territory above the 70 mark. Indeed, it has been about this level for much of the past two months. The past two times such sustained optimism was evident it resulted in declines for stocks. After April 2010 the S&P fell nearly 7 per cent in a few weeks. February 2011’s RSI peak triggered a 6 per cent, three-week retreat.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Barron’s

The S&P’s surge past 1360 is ripe with meaning.

We’re there already — at 1360 for the S&P. That was the average year-end 2012 number forecast by the 10 Wall Street market strategists we polled for Barron’s annual outlook cover feature ("Buckle Up!" Dec. 19, 2011). The Standard & Poor’s 500 index closed Friday at 1361.

This says equally as much about the collective sobriety of the sell-side establishment after a tortured 2011 market path and the impressive vigor of the equity market in 2012.

Nazzie Perspective

Quick takes Pro

This is a chart from yesterday’s Quick Takes Pro newsletter.

With all the fuss over the Nasdaq reaching an 11-year high I took a look at the monthly chart.Yes, indeed, it is above last year’s high and above the 2007 high so I agree with the assessment. But what I don’t think is that this is a breakout, at least not a confirmed one. On a scale this big, such a small move above resistance is still insignificant. It might get significant but right now it is not. Look closely at the label, too. When the market breached this level for the first time in 1999 it was the start of the bubble.

Nette baisse des volumes d’échanges en janvier

Les Echos

Les volumes de transactions exécutées sur les plates-formes de la Bourse transatlantique Nyse Euronext ont diminué en janvier en rythme annuel, malgré le net rebond des marchés actions le mois dernier.

Le rebond observé sur les marchés actions depuis le début de l’année manque d’élan, d’après les volumes de transactions affichés hier par la Bourse transatlantique Nyse Euronext. L’opérateur, maison mère des Bourses de Paris et de New York, a indiqué que le nombre d’opérations exécutées sur ses plates-formes a baissé sur tous les segments, y compris celui des opérations « au comptant » (actions, obligations, ETF).

High Relative strength diffusion Index

Systematic relative Strength

Here is a chart measuring the percentage of high relative strength stocks that are trading above their 50-day moving average (universe of large & mid-cap stocks), as of Feb 2nd 2012.

Besides, the 10-day moving average of the indicator is 86% and the onde day reading is 90%.

Nasdaq au plus haut depuis 10 ans

Frédéric Gilbert

Le Nasdaq, actuellement à 2900 points, est au plus haut depuis janvier 2001, lorsqu’il tombait depuis ses plus hauts….

Nasdaq is today at its 10-year high. The last time this level was seen was Jan. 2001, falling from its historical high…

What Do the Stock Charts Suggest for February ?

Barron’s

U.S. stocks had their best January in 15 years. But technical indicators are sending mixed signals about whether the rally can continue.

Even intermediate-term bears such as yours truly can see that stocks have been in short-term rally mode for nearly two months. And now with the Standard & Poor’s 500 notching a so-called golden cross, the mood of the market remains positive. New highs here we come? Not so fast.

Chart 1

STANDARD & POOR’S 500

Is the market getting too quiet ?

Condor Options

At the time of publication, Jared Woodard held positions in SPX options.

The market has not been this docile in more than eight months. The short-term volatility of the S&P 500 dipped below 10% in mid-January, and the market has kept getting quieter as stocks churn flat-to-higher. The temptation when stocks get this quiet and options become this cheap is to assume that volatility will soon revert higher. But before speculating on rockier markets up ahead, it is worth looking back at how similar markets have fared historically.

Fig. 1. SPX 10-day Historical Volatility, 2009 – 2012. Source: Condor Options

To get a sense of just how calm equity markets have been recently, compare the sub-10% historical 10-day volatility for SPX to the last few years of market history. There have been four periods since the March 2009 market bottom during which SPX has traded with such lack of intensity. In the first three cases, market volatility touched 20% within a month or less. In the final case, stocks stayed quiet from April to July 2011 before getting rowdy for the European banking crisis. Fig. 2 zooms in on the same data from January 2011 to the present. The lower panel in each chart shows the percentage rank of each day’s volatility estimate in relation to market data since 2001.

Something’s Amiss in Stock-Market Rally

Barron’s

Though stocks gained late Wednesday on Fed news, it didn’t respond well earlier to Apple’s stellar quarter. That’s a troubling technical sign.

Once again, the Federal Reserve came to the market’s rescue, pledging on Wednesday to hold interest rates low through late 2014. This was good news for the bulls as stocks were a bit woozy early in the trading day despite Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) blowout first-quarter earnings report released late Tuesday. The good news is that stocks tend to move higher when they perceive support from the Fed. The bad news is that other than the visible gains that took place midday Wednesday, the internals of the market are not as good as people think.

Investors should remain skeptical.

The Dangers of Complacency

Barron’s

Investors might be getting a little too comfortable with the rally that has pushed up stocks by 4.6% already this year.

For the stock market, 2012 certainly has come in like a lamb. The major benchmarks haven’t traded in the red from the moment the ball dropped in Times Square, the market is 20% higher than its early October low, this month’s gentle 4.6% return to date is tops for any January over the past quarter-century and, as a result, no surprise, some color has returned to the cheeks of the average stock player.

Does this sheep-like behavior suggest that investors will soon be led to slaughter?