24 septembre 2012
Les Echos – HANS REDEKER, RESPONSABLE MONDIAL DE LA STRATÉGIE DES CHANGES CHEZ MORGAN STANLEY
Les marchés des changes ont connu une rentrée en fanfare marquée par deux réunions historiques. La Banque centrale européenne (BCE) a d’abord présenté son très attendu plan de soutien aux marchés obligataires de la zone, alors que la Réserve fédérale se lançait quelques jours plus tard dans le plus ambitieux de ses 3 plans d’assouplissement quantitatif (QE), sans limite de temps. Un activisme qui a sorti de leur torpeur des marchés assoupis et jusqu’ici comme paralysés par le risque d’éclatement de la zone euro. Ce risque s’éloigne sans être pour autant une garantie de tranquillité. Dans ce contexte, la première monnaie mondiale, le dollar, fait figure de « devise refuge » de choix, selon le responsable des changes de Morgan Stanley. Avant peut-être que la découverte des immenses ressources énergétiques aux Etats-Unis fasse du billet vert une nouvelle devise pétrole. Lire la suite »
14 février 2012
Les Echos – Paul Fabra est journaliste et l’auteur du « Capitalisme sans capital », paru aux éditions Eyrolles-Les Echos.(1) « Japon : l’hyperinflation claquemurée », « Les Echos » du 15 septembre 2009.
Il est une distorsion majeure dans la cotation des dettes souveraines, au désavantage exclusif de la zone euro. Les agences de notation n’en font pas état. Les marchés continuent d’y fonctionner comme… des marchés. Ce n’est plus le cas pour les trois autres grandes dettes d’Etat : l’américaine, la britannique et la japonaise. S Lire la suite »
22 décembre 2011
(Reuters) – With governments laboring under too much debt and banks hobbled by too little capital, 2012 is shaping up as another year of hard slog for Europe’s economy that could yet test the single currency to destruction.
The Netherlands on Thursday became the latest country to report that output shrank in the third quarter, lending credibility to forecasts that the broader euro zone will soon be in recession if it is not already. A generation that gorged on debt is now adjusting to what some are calling the Great Stagnation. Talk of a lost decade, like Japan in the 1990s, no longer seems outlandish. So far so familiar. What worries economists is that the longer the deleveraging of government and bank and household balance sheets drags on, the greater the risk of market or policy accidents.
Lire la suite »
29 août 2011
Markets have been crazy this month, but rather than try to wade through all the news, much of which doesn’t seem to have much informational content, I thought I would duck out altogether and instead make a list of things I expect will happen over the next several years. We are so caught up in noise and market volatility – as the market swings first in one direction and then, as regulators react, in the other direction – that it is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture.
My basic sense is that we are at the end of one of the six or so major globalization cycles that have occurred in the past two centuries. If I am right, this means that there still is a pretty significant set of major adjustments globally that have to take place before we will have reversed the most important of the many global debt and payments imbalances that have been created during the last two decades. These will be driven overall by a contraction in global liquidity, a sharply rising risk premium, substantial deleveraging, and a sharp contraction in international trade and capital imbalances.
To summarize, my predictions are:
- BRICS and other developing countries have not decoupled in any meaningful sense, and once the current liquidity-driven investment boom subsides the developing world will be hit hard by the global crisis.
- Over the next two years Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.
- Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.
- Chinese growth will begin to slow sharply by 2013-14 and will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade.
- Any decline in GDP growth will disproportionately affect investment and so the demand for non-food commodities.
- If the PBoC resists interest rate cuts as inflation declines, China may even begin slowing in 2012.
- Much slower growth in China will not lead to social unrest if China meaningfully rebalances.
- Within three years Beijing will be seriously examining large-scale privatization as part of its adjustment policy.
- European politics will continue to deteriorate rapidly and the major political parties will either become increasingly radicalized or marginalized.
- Spain and several countries, perhaps even Italy (but probably not France) will be forced to leave the euro and restructure their debt with significant debt forgiveness.
- Germany will stubbornly (and foolishly) refuse to bear its share of the burden of the European adjustment, and the subsequent retaliation by the deficit countries will cause German growth to drop to zero or negative for many years.
- Trade protection sentiment in the US will rise inexorably and unemployment stays high for a few more years.
Lire la suite »
4 mars 2011
After a two-decade bear market, now is the time to buy and hold Japanese stocks, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said.
Faber, who is credited with predicting the 1987 stock market crash and said two years ago that shares would decline just as they began the biggest rally in more than 50 years, said the Japanese government will be forced to print money to monetize the country’s public debt, the developed world’s biggest. That will cause the yen to weaken, helping boost earnings for the nation’s exporters and buoying stock prices. Faber joins other bullish investors on Japan, such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and David Herro of Oakmark International Fund, in countering skepticism about Japan earned through four recessions and dismal stock returns after the 1990 crash of the bubble economy. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average has fallen about 73 percent since it peaked in December 1989. “If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in Japan,” Faber said yesterday at the CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets’ annual conference in Tokyo. “Once the debt market starts to go down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity prices. I would buy equities at the present time.”
Lire la suite »