Interview de juin 2012 sur RTS Info
et en français s’il vous plait !
Interview de juin 2012 sur RTS Info
et en français s’il vous plait !
Real Clear Markets
Marc Faber, the famous author of the "Gloom Boom & Doom" report, sees the S&P 500 breaking down 150 points, or 10 percent, sparking QE3 and maybe even QE4, from the Fed.
After a two-decade bear market, now is the time to buy and hold Japanese stocks, Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said.
Faber, who is credited with predicting the 1987 stock market crash and said two years ago that shares would decline just as they began the biggest rally in more than 50 years, said the Japanese government will be forced to print money to monetize the country’s public debt, the developed world’s biggest. That will cause the yen to weaken, helping boost earnings for the nation’s exporters and buoying stock prices. Faber joins other bullish investors on Japan, such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and David Herro of Oakmark International Fund, in countering skepticism about Japan earned through four recessions and dismal stock returns after the 1990 crash of the bubble economy. The Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average has fallen about 73 percent since it peaked in December 1989. “If I had to make a bet for the next ten years in terms of equity markets, I would seriously consider a very strong weighting here in Japan,” Faber said yesterday at the CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets’ annual conference in Tokyo. “Once the debt market starts to go down, the yen will begin to weaken and that will lift equity prices. I would buy equities at the present time.”
CNBC – 02/02/2011
Global inflation is far higher than official statistics reveal, Marc Faber, editor and publisher of the “Gloom, Boom and Doom” report told CNBC on Wednesday, with increases in the cost of living amounting to between five and eight percent in the United States and just below that in Europe. In its latest release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index (CPI) increased 0.5 percent in December, while the latest figures in for the euro zone show the inflation rate rose to 2.4 percent in January.
“I guarantee you … the annual cost of living increases are more than 5 percent, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is lying,” Faber told CNBC at the Russia Forum in Moscow. “Mr Bernanke is a liar; inflation is much higher than what they publish. I would imagine for most households it’s between five and eight percent per annum in the United States and in Western European countries maybe a little bit lower but also around four and five percent per annum,” he said. In addtion, Faber said high food prices, which have sparked political unrest in Egypt, would next cause turmoil in Pakistan.
“You may not have the problem in Saudi Arabia and the Emirates because there the governments can heavily subsidize food if they want to, but I’m particularly worried that what has happened in Egypt will happen in Pakistan,” he said. Asked whether Pakistan would indeed see an Egypt-style uprising, he said: “I think that will be the case.” “I think Egypt is a reminder to people that politics and social events and geopolitics have a meaningful impact on asset markets,” Faber said, adding that what the world was currently witnessing was “a wake up call where the US outperforms emerging markets for a while.” “That doesn’t mean that the US goes up. It just may go down less than the others,” he said. Turning to the global economic recovery, Faber said the West was bottoming out and recovering, which meant the global economy looked “OK” for the next six months. But “we’re all doomed in the long run,” he said. “We have to realize it’s an artificial recovery driven by ultra-expansionary, monetary policies and also ultra-expansionary fiscal policies. In other words, the deficits of governments are huge and that will lead down the road to renewed problems,” he said.
Bloomberg – 25/01/2011
Marc Faber, who told investors to buy U.S. stocks in March 2009 before the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began to rally, said the gauge may drop 10 percent because too many investors are bullish.
“A correction is coming,” Faber said in an interview from Zurich with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “Equities in the U.S. will go down less than emerging markets.” He predicts a drop of as much as 30 percent for equities in developing countries. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has advanced 134 percent from its low in March 2009, while the S&P 500 jumped 91 percent. Equities gained as central banks kept interest rates near record lows and governments spent trillions of dollars to spur growth. On Nov. 3, the Federal Reserve said it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June. Faber correctly predicted in May 2005 that stocks would make little headway that year. The S&P 500 gained 3 percent. He was less prescient in March 2007, when he said the S&P 500 was more likely to fall than rise because the threats of faster inflation and slower growth persisted. The S&P 500 then climbed 10 percent to its record of 1,565.15 seven months later, and ended the year up 3.5 percent.
Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, reiterated his views from a Dec. 30 interview with Bloomberg News when he said that U.S. Treasury bonds are a “suicidal” investment and are likely to decline in the long-term. After bottoming in December 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 3.9859 percent in April on government measures to stimulate the economy. Concern about a second recession in three years sent yields lower through October. Treasuries rose today, pushing yields on 30-year bonds down the most this year, on speculation President Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non-security discretionary spending to help cap record deficits.
“Treasuries are the best place for the next 10 days,” Faber said. “Not for the longer-term”.
Bloomberg – 10/12/2010
Global markets are heading for an “important turning point” as interest rates begin to rise within about three months and the U.S. dollar gains, according to investor Marc Faber. Investors should buy stocks and sell cash and bonds because governments are continuing to print too much money and may create a new “credit bubble,” Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, told reporters during a forum in Seoul today.
“Instead of interest rates going down, they could start to go up, instead of the dollar being weak, it could strengthen,” Faber said. “I’m ultra-bearish on everything, but I believe you’ll be better off owning shares than government bonds.” The Dollar Index slid 8.5 percent last quarter, the most since June 2002, and dropped 1.3 percent this month after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled he may add money to the economy. That new supply is reflected in exchange rates, based on how the currency reacted to the last round of so-called quantitative easing, said HSBC Holdings Plc, BNP Paribas SA and Nordea Bank AB. The central banks of Israel and Taiwan raised borrowing costs in the last 15 days. Faber’s recommendation on stocks is shared by Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Investors buying bonds now “are making a mistake,” he said Oct. 5 at Fortune magazine’s Most Powerful Women conference in Washington.
“It’s quite clear that stocks are cheaper than bonds,” Buffett said. “I can’t imagine anyone having bonds in their portfolio when they can own equities.” U.S. stock dividends are paying more than government bonds. Ten-year Treasuries yield 5.2 percentage points less than equities of companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index when adjusted for annual inflation, near the most since March 2009. Faber told investors to abandon U.S. stocks a week before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and said in August 2007 that U.S. shares were entering a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked two months later before retreating as much as 57 percent.
April 21 (Bloomberg) — China’s “excessive” credit expansion and surging real estate prices are “danger signals” that growth is peaking, investor Marc Faber said. “There are some symptoms of a bubble building in China, with the increase in foreign exchange reserves, rapidly rising property prices,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. “From here on, the China economy will slow down regardless. Whether it will crash this year or later, I don’t know.”
China, the world’s third-biggest economy, yesterday ordered developers not to take deposits for sales of uncompleted flats without proper approval. This adds to curbs on loans for third- home purchases, increased down-payment requirements and higher mortgage rates announced in the past week, after property prices in 70 cities jumped a record 11.7 percent in March. China’s economy grew 11.9 percent in the first quarter, the most in almost three years, fanning concern that record lending is creating asset bubbles. The government has twice this year told banks to set aside more reserves and pace credit growth. “If you believe the government can steer the economy like a car, that’s not my view,” said Faber, who oversees $300 million at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. Government measures “always lead to unintended consequences.” Faber spoke on the sidelines of the Asian Public Real Estate Association Forum in Singapore.
Interview Marc Faber – Le Temps, par Propos recueillis par Daniel Eskenazi, Zurich
Selon Marc Faber, le gourou de la finance, les pays occidentaux sont devenus plus risqués que les économies émergentes
Bloomberg – 07/04/09 – by Chen Shiyin and Susan Li
April 7 (Bloomberg) — Marc Faber, the investor who recommended buying U.S. stocks before the steepest rally in more than 70 years, said the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may drop as much as 10 percent before resuming gains.
The measure may decline to about 750 and rebound after July, Faber, 63, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. Global stock markets are unlikely to fall below their October and November lows, he said.
“We need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10 percent, and after that we can maybe rally more into July,” said Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. “The economic news, while it won’t be good, the rate of getting worse will slow down.”
The S&P has rallied 25 percent from a 12-year low since March 9, when Faber advised investors to buy U.S. stocks, saying government actions will boost shares. Asian equities are among the best bets for global investors because they are attractively valued and will benefit the most from a global economic rebound, Faber said.
He told investors to abandon U.S. stocks a week before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and said in August 2007 that U.S. shares were entering a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked two months later before retreating as much as 57 percent.
Faber said he bought some commodity producers in November and is now less “interested” in these companies after some stocks more than doubled. He is also buying some bank stocks and predicted that Citigroup Inc. shares could “easily rebound” to around $5 from $2.72 currently.
“The rebound potential for some of these banks and financial institutions is quite high,” Faber said.
George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, is less optimistic, saying the banking system is “seriously underwater” with banks on “life support.”
The four-week rally in U.S. stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still contracting and there’s a risk the U.S. falls into a depression, Soros also said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.
Citigroup lowered its rating on U.S. equities to “underweight” from “neutral,” saying the rally is set to end and the market’s valuations are less attractive, strategists led by London-based Robert Buckland said in a report yesterday.
S&P 500 futures expiring in June were unchanged at 830.40 at 12:35 p.m. in Singapore.
In Asia, stocks offer “much better value” than U.S. shares, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy the region’s equities on “every setback,” Faber said. Japanese stocks also “look interesting,” he added.
“If you buy Asian equities in the next three months, over the next five to 10 years, for sure you will make money,” he said. “Asian exporting countries will benefit the most from an expansion when it happens.”
Faber is less favorable on bonds, saying they are entering a “long-term bear market” that can last for the next 15 years to 20 years.
Investors should also diversify into the currencies of Canada, Australia and Singapore because in the U.S. dollar “may weaken somewhat,” he added. The dollar has strengthened against all of the so-called Group of 10 currencies except the yen in the last 12 months, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.
Faber still advises investors to buy gold even though the precious metal is going to be “dead money” in the next three to six months. He plans to buy more gold if prices drop to between $750 and $800 an ounce, he added. Prices retreated yesterday to $872.8, the lowest in more than two months. "