I Sold Two Startups For $150 Million, And Here’s How I Did It

11 septembre 2012

Business Insider

Last year, Chris Dixon sold a startup he founded, Hunch, to eBay for $80 million. A couple years before that, he sold another startup he founded, SiteAdvisor, to McAfee for a rumored price of $75 million. Now he’s working for eBay and doing a lot of investing in startups, too.

Yesterday, Dixon published a post on « some things I’ve learned about the acquisition process over the years. » It contains 14 lessons for aspiring entrepreneurs.

They are: Lire le reste de cette entrée »


Late-Stage, High-Risk

10 septembre 2012

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


For investors who don’t rely much on historical research, evidence, or memory, the exuberance of the market here is undoubtedly enticing, while a strongly defensive position might seem unbearably at odds with prevailing conditions. For investors who do rely on historical research, evidence, and memory, prevailing conditions offer little choice but to maintain a strongly defensive position. Moreover, the evidence is so strong and familiar from a historical perspective that a defensive position should be fairly comfortable despite the near-term enthusiasm of investors. Lire le reste de cette entrée »

In Depth: Positioning for a Housing Recovery

30 août 2012

  • ​ PIMCO believes that over the coming years, housing-related assets have the potential to outperform the conservative assumptions embedded in their current market valuations.
  • As the uncertainty in the housing market wanes, risk premiums in asset prices may reflect a recovery well before the market fully heals.
  • A variety of housing-related investment opportunities may outperform in a housing recovery, while cushioning against risk in an economic downturn. Lire le reste de cette entrée »

The Trend is Your Fickle Friend

30 août 2012

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


One of the questions we often receive is why we don’t simply lift our hedges when the market advances above some moving average or another, and replace them when the market breaks below those moving averages. Certainly, when one looks a chart, extended market advances always break above various moving averages, and extended market declines always break below various moving averages, so simple trend-following strategies seem utterly self-evident. Unfortunately, if you actually take that strategy to historical data, the results typically aren’t nearly as compelling. Moreover, once any amount of slippage or transaction costs are taken into account, the most widely-followed strategies generally underperform a passive buy-and-hold strategy over time, and often don’t even manage downside risk particularly well.

I should emphasize up-front that the focus here is the use of popular moving-average crossover methods, and is not a criticism of trend-following methods more broadly. The second half of this comment discusses considerations that I believe are useful in evaluating market trends and extracting signals from financial and economic data. Lire le reste de cette entrée »

Confidence and Enthusiasm

21 août 2012

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.


The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007 about the durability of housing gains and leverage-driven prosperity. Market history is littered with unfounded faith in new economic eras, and hopes that “this time is different.” Those periods can be difficult, at least for a while, for investors who are less willing to abandon evidence and lessons of history, not to mention basic principles of economics and valuation. We endured similar discomfort in periods like 2000 and 2007, before hard reality set in. Lire le reste de cette entrée »

Risk Builds as Junk Bonds Boom

16 août 2012

New York Times

Money market funds pay next to nothing. Interest rates on United States Treasuries are dismal. The volatile stock market has been dead money for more than a decade. The market for junk bonds, risky corporate debt that pays high interest rates, is red hot. Such debt, also known as high-yield bonds, has returned 10.2 percent year-to-date, according to a JPMorgan high-yield index. Junk bond funds are on a pace to take in a record amount of money this year. Companies with less than stellar credit are issuing hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds. Lire le reste de cette entrée »

Paulson’s luster lust

16 août 2012

New York Post

Double down!

Hedge fund biggie John Paulson, the world’s foremost gold bug, added to his precious metal hoard during the second quarter.

Gold now accounts for 44 percent of his entire stock portfolio. The biggest increase was the additional 4.5 million shares of SPDR Gold Trust, a gold exchange-traded fund. The firm reported a $3 billion decline in the value of its stock portfolio, to $12 billion for June 30, down from $15 billion on March 31, in the quarterly statements with the Securities and Exchange Commission that were filed yesterday. SPDR Gold now accounts for $3.39 billion of Paulson’s entire portfolio, or 28 percent. The exchange-traded fund lost about 4 percent during the quarter. Lire le reste de cette entrée »